CBCD
College Ball Computer Database
1.0 · 138 FBS teams
ALA

Away team

SEC · FPI +20.1 (#8) · Eff 60.1

UGA

Home team

SEC · FPI +24.8 (#5) · Eff 52

10,000 simulations

Georgia has the edge

Medium confidence

Alabama

39%

win probability

Projected score
2327
Spread: UGA -4.0

Georgia

61%

win probability

ALA WIN SHAREUGA WIN SHARE

Alabama quarterback

Keelon Russell

expected
51/100
CBCD independent grade · Data 100%

Ourlads QB1 · CBCD 2025–26 play-data grade · Sep 10

Georgia quarterback

Gunner Stockton

expected
65/100
CBCD independent grade · Data 100%

Ourlads QB1 · CBCD 2025–26 play-data grade · Sep 10

Signal breakdown

Each component votes independently

Computer power
ALA 34UGA 66
20%
Betting market
ALA 34UGA 66
16%
Matchup efficiency
ALA 43UGA 57
16%
Expert consensus
ALA 50UGA 50
10%
QB & personnel
ALA 12UGA 88
10%
Situation & venue
ALA 27UGA 73
8%
Recent form
ALA 53UGA 47
4% effective

Advanced model inputs · 12%

Five added metrics

Only independent, verified metrics vote. Repeated Week 1 signals and missing inputs remain neutral.

20%

data coverage

EPA & success rate
ALAUGA
3.5%
Postgame win expectancy
2.5% neutral
Explosive & finishing drives
2.5% neutral
Returning production
1.5% neutral
Opponent-adjusted performance
2% neutral

0 of 1 available advanced metrics agree with the core computer lean. Neutral placeholders contribute no directional edge until verified data is available.

Model vs. market

No bet · Insufficient edge after uncertainty

Model line: UGA -4.0
Consensus input: UGA -4.5
Projected total: 51.0 vs. 51.5

48%UGA cover
47%Over
Verify the current median line before using the edge.

Possession simulation

6,116

UGA wins per 10,000 trials

Every trial independently simulates possessions, touchdowns, field goals, turnovers and overtime using opponent-adjusted team and personnel inputs.

Model sources

All 138 starting quarterbacks now use CBCD’s independent public-data grade. Week 1 play efficiency is available for 135 teams; missing data remains neutral. CBS’s nine-writer ATS consensus is available for 24 featured games and is heavily shrunk because a cover pick is not a straight-up prediction.

Daily market verification

All 86 Week 2 games were refreshed September 10. CBCD now has 84 DraftKings spreads and 85 totals, with every projection recalculated from the new snapshot.